[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciod803e03a":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciod803e03a","OpenAI和Anthropic真正的危机！","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciod803e03a","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">OpenAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和\u003C\u002Fspan>Anthropic\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">最危险的对手，可能不是另一家前沿模型公司，而是一条越来越清楚的价格曲线：模型能力不断提高，价格却在快速下跌。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">过去几年，前沿模型是一种稀缺资源。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">谁拥有最强的推理、编程和长文本能力，谁就能决定\u003C\u002Fspan>API\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">价格。开发者没有太多选择，企业想使用最先进的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，只能按\u003C\u002Fspan>Token\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">向少数几家公司付费。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">这套商业模式看起来很像软件：研发成本很高，但产品可以无限复制，毛利率应该越来越高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">问题是，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">模型可能不是传统软件。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">它更像一个需要不断投入巨额资本、却持续降价的技术产品。每一代新模型都要消耗更多\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、电力和数据，但领先优势未必能够维持足够长的时间。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">引\u003C\u002Fspan>a16z\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的历史统计称，达到相近能力水平的最低推理价格，三年内下降了大约\u003C\u002Fspan>1000\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍。\u003C\u002Fspan>OpenRouter\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">对超过\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万亿\u003C\u002Fspan>Token\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的真实使用进行分析后，也发现开放模型正在依靠更低成本和更灵活的部署方式获得份额。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">这意味着，前沿模型公司的真正风险不是“模型突然没人用”，而是越来越多客户只在最困难的任务上使用它们。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">大部分企业工作其实并不需要全球最强模型。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">•\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">客服分类、信息提取和文档整理，稳定、便宜的小模型就能完成。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">•\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">企业内部知识问答更重视数据安全和私有部署，不一定愿意把敏感数据交给外部\u003C\u002Fspan>API\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">•\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">简单代码补全、内容审核和批量处理，成本往往比模型排行榜上的几分差距更重要。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">一旦开放权重模型达到“足够好”，企业就没有理由让每一个请求都经过最贵的模型。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">模型路由会进一步加快这个过程。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">未来一个\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">应用背后，可能同时连接五家甚至十家模型。简单任务交给低价小模型，复杂推理交给前沿模型，敏感数据留在企业内部，只有关键步骤才调用外部\u003C\u002Fspan>API\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">客户购买的不再是某一家模型，而是一套能够自动选择模型的系统。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">这会带来一个很大的变化：真正掌握定价权的，不再只是模型公司，而是掌握用户、数据和工作流的应用平台。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">OpenAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和\u003C\u002Fspan>Anthropic\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">当然还能保持技术领先。最强的推理、编程和\u003C\u002Fspan>Agent\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">能力仍然可以获得溢价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">但市场真正应该问的，不是它们还能不能领先，而是每一次领先能够维持多久。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">如果一家公司花费数十亿美元训练新模型，只获得几个月的明显优势，随后开放模型快速追近、\u003C\u002Fspan>API\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">价格继续下降，那么它就会进入一个非常辛苦的循环：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">•\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">花更多钱训练下一代模型。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">•\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">依靠短期领先提高价格。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">•\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">开放模型追上后，价格和份额再次承压。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">•\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">为了重新拉开差距，只能继续投入更大规模的训练。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">这不是典型的软件生意，而是一场资本投入不断上升、产品价格不断下降的竞赛。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美股投资网认为，\u003C\u002Fspan>OpenAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和\u003C\u002Fspan>Anthropic\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">真正需要证明的，不只是模型有多强，而是领先优势能否维持足够久，并在下一轮训练开始之前赚回研发和算力成本。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这也解释了为什么两家公司都在向\u003C\u002Fspan>API\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">之外扩张。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">OpenAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">需要\u003C\u002Fspan>ChatGPT\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">成为用户入口，需要企业订阅、\u003C\u002Fspan>Agent\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和应用生态；\u003C\u002Fspan>Anthropic\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">需要\u003C\u002Fspan>Claude Code\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、企业客户和开发者工具形成更深的使用习惯。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">因为只卖\u003C\u002Fspan>Token\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，模型很容易被比较、被路由，也容易被替换。掌握工作流之后，客户迁移的成本才会真正上升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">这条逻辑对美股投资者意味着什么？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">首先，云平台可能比单一模型公司更安全。\u003C\u002Fspan>$MSFT \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>$AMZN \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和 \u003C\u002Fspan>$GOOGL\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">并不需要押中唯一赢家。\u003C\u002Fspan>OpenAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>Anthropic\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>DeepSeek\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">或其他开放模型，只要最终运行在\u003C\u002Fspan>Azure\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>AWS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和\u003C\u002Fspan>Google Cloud\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">上，云厂商就能继续卖\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、存储、网络和数据库。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">其次，开放模型未必利空 \u003C\u002Fspan>$NVDA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">模型价格下降可能降低单次调用成本，却也会让更多企业开始使用\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。更多模型被下载、微调和私有部署，反而会扩大推理算力需求。价格越便宜，\u003C\u002Fspan>Token\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">使用量可能越大。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">最后，应用层的重要性会继续上升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">未来真正值钱的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">公司，不一定拥有最强的基础模型，而是拥有用户入口、专有数据和不可替代的工作流程。模型可以切换，但客户关系和业务系统没有那么容易更换。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">所以，“\u003C\u002Fspan>OpenAI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和\u003C\u002Fspan>Anthropic\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">危险了”这句话只说对了一半。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">危险的不是这两家公司会突然失去价值，而是“只靠模型领先和\u003C\u002Fspan>API\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">收费，就能长期获得超高利润率”的想象正在被削弱。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">开放权重模型不会马上取代前沿模型，但它会不断压低基础智能的价格。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">当智能越来越像一种便宜、充足、可以随时更换的商品，利润就会从模型本身，流向真正掌握客户、数据、算力和工作入口的平台。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">未来最值钱的，不一定是谁造出了最聪明的模型。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">而是谁能在模型越来越便宜之后，依然控制用户每天离不开的那条工作流。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FA\u002FAI\u002FAI.jpg","2026-07-31T02:27:59","2026.07.31","2026\u002F07\u002F31",32364,[22],"AI","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"edit":87,"editVideo":88,"courseContent":89,"more":90,"buyNow":91,"subscribeNow":92,"encoding":93,"paidContent":94},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]