[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioc86bc087":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioc86bc087","营收暴增378%，股价却跌！存储股的好日子到头了？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioc86bc087","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>闪迪这份财报，最让持有存储股的人难受的地方是：业绩已经强到这个程度，盘后还是遭到抛售。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>季度营收\u003C\u002Fspan>110.3\u003Cspan>亿美元，同比增长\u003C\u002Fspan>378%\u003Cspan>；非\u003C\u002Fspan>GAAP\u003Cspan>毛利率\u003C\u002Fspan>85.1%\u003Cspan>；数据中心收入环比增长\u003C\u002Fspan>61%\u003Cspan>。公司还宣布\u003C\u002Fspan>1\u003Cspan>拆\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>。单看这些数字，很难得出“需求不行了”的结论。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但股价看的是下一步。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为，存储股正在从“缺货涨价、盈利预期不断上调”的阶段，进入“高利润能维持多久”的阶段。生意仍然很强，市场却开始降低对这种盈利水平长期持续的信心。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>看两个细节就明白了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>闪迪本季度收入环比增长\u003C\u002Fspan>23%\u003Cspan>，下一季度指引中点\u003C\u002Fspan>124\u003Cspan>亿美元，对应环比增长约\u003C\u002Fspan>12%\u003Cspan>。毛利率本季度\u003C\u002Fspan>85.1%\u003Cspan>，下一季度指引\u003C\u002Fspan>84.5%\u003Cspan>至\u003C\u002Fspan>85.5%\u003Cspan>，中点基本持平。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>公司还在增长，也预计继续维持高利润。但此前推动股价的，是业绩一次比一次更夸张。现在收入增速放缓、毛利率接近走平，即使绝对数字漂亮，新增的惊喜也可能不够。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这不意味着存储周期已经结束，而是市场对“超预期”的要求变了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这里还有一个不能漏掉的信息：管理层在电话会上表示，本季度环比收入增长约六成来自销量、四成来自价格。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>所以，不能把这份财报简单理解成“全靠涨价撑起来”。实际出货仍在增加，这是需求的支撑。但往后，如果涨价贡献减弱，公司就需要靠更多出货、产品升级和成本下降，接住盈利增长。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>对股东而言，这比过去单纯等价格上涨，要求更高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这也是为什么，存储股在盈利最漂亮的时候，反而可能让投资者觉得最难做。市场一旦担心未来利润回落，就会降低愿意支付的估值倍数，股价可以先于财报走弱。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>接下来，我会盯住三件事：\u003C\u002Fspan>NAND\u003Cspan>成交价格能否继续上涨，客户库存有没有积累，以及新增供应释放后，毛利率指引是否开始连续下调。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>其中最需要警惕的，是出货继续增长，售价和利润率却一起走弱。那时，供应竞争才真正进入利润表。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>至于\u003C\u002Fspan>1\u003Cspan>拆\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>，它降低的是每股交易价格，不增加公司价值，也改变不了供需。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>所以，我不会因为这一晚下跌就认定周期结束，也不会仅凭股价接近腰斩就急着抄底。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这个阶段，我愿意等价格和盈利预期逐步稳定，再考虑加仓，少赚一段反弹，也比把周期高位的利润当成长期水平更稳妥。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如果后续售价坚挺、客户持续采购，利润率也守得住，而股价仍按盈利即将大幅下滑定价，那才是我更愿意出手的机会。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>反过来，一旦售价和利润率连续下调，我会降低仓位，不拿“\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>长期看好”替短期盈利恶化找理由。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>对存储股，我现在的态度很明确：保留研究和参与的兴趣，但加仓必须靠经营数据支持。跌了多少，只决定我会不会打开财报；未来能赚多少，才决定我愿意买多少。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$SNDK $MU #\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>【原创声明】\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>本文由美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）研究团队原创完成。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>原创机构：美股投资网\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>英文品牌：\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>本文基于公开财报、\u003C\u002Fspan>SEC\u003Cspan>文件、市场数据、机构资金、期权交易及产业链信息进行独立分析\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如需引用本文，请注明：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>“美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）原创研究”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSNDK\u002FSNDK.jpg","2026-10-30T13:51:42","2026.10.30","2026\u002F10\u002F30",32152,[22],"SNDK","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimages\u002Ffooter\u002Ffooter-1-wechat.gif?v=20260930c","\u002Fimages\u002Ffooter\u002Ffooter-2-telegram.png?v=20260930c","\u002Fimages\u002Ffooter\u002Ffooter-3-whatsapp.png?v=20260930c","\u002Fimages\u002Ffooter\u002Ffooter-4-line.png?v=20260930c","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]