[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio810c2bfc":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio810c2bfc","ASML暴跌8%，市场到底在怕什么？国产DUV的威胁被高估了吗？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio810c2bfc","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">国产\u003C\u002Fspan>DUV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">不需要马上追平\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，只要让中国晶圆厂未来少买几台\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，资本市场就会先砍掉一部分估值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">周一，\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">暴跌\u003C\u002Fspan>8.4%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，导火索是一条非常具体的消息：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">据\u003C\u002Fspan>The Information\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">报道，一家位于上海、获得支持的中国企业，已经开始小批量生产国产浸没式\u003C\u002Fspan>DUV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">光刻机，目标今年生产约\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">台，\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年扩大至约\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">台，并计划交付给中芯国际、华虹半导体和长鑫存储等客户。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这条消息为什么能把\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">砸成这样？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美股投资网分析认为，因为中国今年预计仍占\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">约\u003C\u002Fspan>20%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的收入，而中国客户目前能够采购的核心设备，主要就是\u003C\u002Fspan>DUV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。市场立刻开始交易一个风险：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">如果国产设备真的能够使用，中国晶圆厂未来还需要购买多少台\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">但这里必须分清楚三件事：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">开始生产，不等于通过客户验收；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">能够曝光，不等于能够稳定量产；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">生产\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">台，也不等于性能已经追平\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">光刻机真正难的，不只是把图形印到晶圆上，而是长期维持套刻精度、吞吐量、稳定性和良率。设备出厂后，还要经过安装、调试、工艺适配和漫长的产线验证。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这也是美股投资网认为市场反应过度的原因。即使中国明年真的生产\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">台国产\u003C\u002Fspan>DUV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，短期内也很难撼动\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在高端设备、生产效率和客户服务体系上的优势。摩根大通直言，这次抛售相对于报道内容显得“不成比例”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">但市场也不是完全瞎跌。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">真正的风险，并不是中国明天造出一台性能完全相同的设备，而是中国客户开始拥有第二个选择。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">一旦国产\u003C\u002Fspan>DUV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">能够承担部分成熟制程和存储芯片产线，\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在中国的新增订单、议价能力和长期市场份额都会受到影响。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">所以这次下跌交易的不是“国产光刻机已经打败\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">”，而是：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在中国长期独占浸没式\u003C\u002Fspan>DUV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">市场的假设，第一次被市场认真质疑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">而且当天不仅\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">下跌，\u003C\u002Fspan>ASM International\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>BESI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">等欧洲半导体设备公司也同步大跌，说明资金减持的不是一家公司，而是在重新评估整个海外半导体设备产业链的中国敞口。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">对散户来说，这件事最终要看两个信号：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">第一，这\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">台设备能否真正通过中芯国际、华虹和长鑫存储的验证，并进入连续生产；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">第二，国产设备能否在套刻精度、每小时晶圆处理量和长期稳定性上接近\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，而不只是完成一次曝光。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在这两个问题得到答案之前，国产\u003C\u002Fspan>DUV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">对\u003C\u002Fspan>ASML\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">更像是估值上的长期威胁，还不是利润上的即时重击。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FA\u002FASML\u002FASML.jpg","2026-07-28T05:43:57","2026.07.28","2026\u002F07\u002F28",45678,[22],"ASML","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"edit":87,"editVideo":88,"courseContent":89,"more":90,"buyNow":91,"subscribeNow":92,"encoding":93,"paidContent":94},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]